(AP) - If Hollywood were a poker game, this summer's
question would be: Can a pair beat one of a kind?
The pair are this year's surefire blockbusters "Transformers:
Revenge of the Fallen," opening Wednesday, and "Harry Potter and
the Half-Blood Prince," coming in mid-July.
The one of a kind was last year's "The Dark Knight," the
biggest box-office behemoth in more than a decade.
If history holds true, the combination of "Transformers" and
"Harry Potter" should more than match the whopping $533.3 million
haul of "The Dark Knight" and keep the movie business on track to
beat last year's summer record revenue of $4.2 billion.
While ticket sales have been brisk this season, Hollywood fell
into a bit of a slump this month, when receipts three weekends in a
row fell short of business over the same periods last year.
Nearing the halfway mark of the season, revenues are at $1.7
billion, a fraction ahead of summer 2008's, according to Paul
Dergarabedian, box-office analyst for Hollywood.com.
But at this point a year ago, the debut of "The Dark Knight"
was still a month away. The film was a phenomenon, giving Hollywood
a stellar second wind at a point in summer when the box office
often starts to trickle off.
Things trailed off this month, significantly eroding the record
box-office pace studios have been maintaining for the entire year.
"June gloom definitely hit the box office, but I think things
are going to turn around," Dergarabedian said. "We've got that
one-two punch of `Transformers' and `Harry Potter."'
The first "Transformers" did $319 million domestically in
summer 2007, while the "Harry Potter" tales typically come in
near $300 million. If the latest installments match that, they will
combine for a $600 million infusion into this summer's totals.
The first "Transformers" had a $70.5 million opening weekend,
a big start for a tale based on children's toys and starring two
relative unknowns at the time, Shia LaBeouf and Megan Fox.
The sequel is expected to do far more business as an established
franchise with hot stars.
"Shia and Megan have both become much bigger stars and
personalities since the first movie," said Rob Moore, vice
chairman for Paramount, which is releasing the DreamWorks
production.
Anticipation for Paramount's "Transformers" is so high that it
could lift that sequel into the $400 million realm, while Warner
Bros. is opening "Half-Blood Prince" the same weekend it debuted
"The Dark Knight," hoping lightning strikes again. "Harry
Potter" fever is growing, with "Half-Blood Prince" the lead-in
to the two-part big-screen adaptation of the final book in J.K.
Rowling's fantasy series.
"I think summer is just starting in a big way this coming
week," said Rory Bruer, head of distribution at Sony, which
released "Angels & Demons" and has Katherine Heigl's romance
"The Ugly Truth" and the Julia Childs tale "Julie and Julia"
with Meryl Streep still to come.
Sandra Bullock's romantic comedy "The Proposal" did better
business than expected this past weekend, giving the industry a
lift on the eve of "Transformers."
"There's quite a number of big movies yet to come," said Mark
Zoradi, president of the motion-picture group at Disney, which
released "The Proposal" and scored a $200 million smash with the
animated adventure "Up." "I was convinced beforehand that this
summer was going to be bigger than the last, and I remained
convinced that it's going to be."
Fourth of July weekend brings the animated sequel "Ice Age:
Dawn of the Dinosaurs" and the gangster saga "Public Enemies,"
starring Johnny Depp and Christian Bale.
The string of potential hits continues with "Bruno," "Borat"
creator Sacha Baron Cohen's new mock documentary; "G-Force," a
family action comedy from blockbuster producer Jerry Bruckheimer;
"Funny People," teaming Adam Sandler and Seth Rogen with comedy
maestro Judd Apatow; "G.I. Joe," an action thriller based on the
military toys; and "Inglourious Basterds," Quentin Tarantino's
World War II epic starring Brad Pitt.
Before summer, Hollywood had been on a box-office tear, filling
the typically slow winter and spring months with hits such as
"Paul Blart: Mall Cop," "Taken" and "Fast & Furious."
Revenues for the year had been up as much as 17.4 percent,
according to box-office figures compiled by Hollywood.com. But for
all the big summer hits of May, studios began losing ground to a
stronger slate from a year ago.
For the year, revenues now are at $4.8 billion, up 10.4 percent
from last year's.
While other studios did not want to tread too closely to the
release date of "Transformers," Hollywood may have stuffed too
many action flicks into May, when "X-Men Origins: Wolverine,"
"Star Trek" and "Terminator Salvation" all opened within a few
weeks. Meantime, June swooned, loaded with comedies and light on
action until "Transformers."
"Star Trek," the year's biggest hit so far with $239.4 million
domestically, landed in theaters just a week after "Wolverine,"
the two movies likely gobbling up some of each other's business.
"Those two movies went after the same audience. It sort of
became gluttony at the buffet table," said Chris Aronson, head of
distribution at 20th Century Fox, which released "Wolverine."
"You can only eat so much."